OK, so U.S. Treasury Secretary Paulson is back in town ready to get that dialogue thing going. I can’t say that I am too excited these days when a U.S. official comes to town. Seems like Paulson was just here, and when he isn’t, then Commerce Secretary Gutierrez is here, or the USTR to talk about intellectual property - the list goes on and on.

So Paulson will meet with the usual folks, make some comments about the value of the RMB, IP enforcement, the trade deficit, etc. Meanwhile, back in the U.S., the same members of the U.S. House and Senate will be complaining. The usual trade association guys will be holding press conferences - ex-Governor John Engler, currently with the National Association of Manufacturers, was in the spotlight this week - and lobbying Congress and the Bush Administration. And the beat goes on.

So what do the threats get us? Certainly not much from the Chinese government. After a hundred years of being carved up by a melon, they are not too keen on being forced into changing policy. Even the appearance of looking like U.S. threats are swaying domestic policy is avoided here.  As I’ve said many times, the high rhetoric of U.S. policians on China issues are not only a waste of breath, they are counterproductive.

I apologize for my cynicism here. If you want a more balanced and professional approach to this topic, you’ll have to get it from Jeremy Gordon at China Business Services. Jeremy’s conclusion that John Engler and NAM will be disappointed with Paulson’s trip is correct, of course. That won’t stop us from repeating this process in a couple of months, though.

For more on the NAM stance, you can go to the Associated Press story or visit NAM itself.