Jeremy Gordon at the China Business Services blog writes:

Access Asia, self-confessed “statheads”, have been looking at the validity of retail statistics for some time (see earlier post here). Their conclusion?:

“The Chinese government figure for retail sales isn’t retail sales, and it’s about 80% bigger than the real retail market value. This means that per capita retail sales are about half what people thought they were. The size of China’s “middle class” is much smaller than the hypesters promised…and by Western standards are not really a middle class.”

As seen in the Access Asia newsletter, 8th February, 2007.

Scary stuff if your business plan is based on a quick read of headlines and official statistics! Whether you agree with the analysis or not, it is a reminder of the value of diligent research, including reference to multiple sources of information.

As for the consuming middle class, it is clear that the “hypsters” are being held to account. Recent reports put them at 65 to 75 million people (rather than more frothy estimates of 250 million to 300 million).

To read more:

http://www.chinabusinessservices.com/blog/