Imagethief has been following with interest developments in China's pork market. This is both because it is of academic interest and also because Imagethief does not keep kosher and, as a miserly sort, has a direct stake in what the auntie at the wet market behind my apartment is charging me on shopping day. I do love steamed pork with mushrooms the way Mrs. Imagethief makes it.

For those of you who are not following the unfolding drama, pork prices have been skyrocketing in China. The explanation for this depends to some degree upon where you get your news. In much of the western press (here represented by the Sydney Morning Herald), the cause is an outbreak of blue-ear virus aggravated by economic factors. If you read the Chinese government press (here represented by People's Daily), the cause is economic factors aggravated by blue-ear virus.

Regardless of priority, the net result is retail pork prices up 30 percent in a week and wholesale up a shocking 70 percent since April, according to the Financial Times (disease, aggravated by economic factors, in case you were wondering).

Past problems with disclosure of human and livestock diseases aside, I can see why the government might try to keep the blue-ear virus aspect in second place. The last thing China needs now is anything that reminds overseas audiences of health-related problems connected with China's food supply.

In fact, in a related bit of lethal public communication, the former commissioner of the State Food and Drug Administration has just been sentenced to death for corruption related to drug approvals. I'm afraid that this move will be only half-effective. Domestic audiences will think to themselves "They're executing him? They must be really serious about this!" (Not that this has ever had any effect before.) Foreign audiences, on the other hand, will think to themselves, "They're executing him? Things must be even worse than I thought over there!"

Back on the swine front, unfortunately for the Chinese government the western press is keeping the disease angle front and center. After all, which story would you rather flip to:

Production falloff leads to soaring pork prices in China

or

Swine epidemic leads to soaring pork prices in China

I made those up, but you get the idea. I read the swine epidemic story every time. But, then, I am a cultural bottom-feeder with a taste for sensationalism. Perhaps you are different. Of course, if so, why are you reading Imagethief?

Wen Jiabao, the man who always gets delegated for warm and fuzzy public diplomacy assignments, has been packed off on an inspection tour of the Shaanxi pork industry, and is being photographed with grateful hog farmers and swine merchants in order to demonstrate the government's concern.

Wen has pledged to stabilize the pork price. Apparently that's not just an utterance to calm the market. The thing I found really interesting in reading about this is that China has a "strategic pork reserve".

And why not? The US keeps grain reserves, although they seem to be for a combination of price support and foreign aid programs these days, rather than any kind of grain shock. Nixon discussed a strategic food reserve back in the seventies. And the US hadn't even had a famine in living memory. So who can blame the Chinese for a pork reserve? There is something poetic about a pork reserve for China. Unless, I suppose, you're a Uighur, in which case a mutton reserve might be more useful.

Unfortunately, China Daily columnist Raymond Zhou has pissed on the pork reserve parade (I've waited a long time to write that phrase) with some gloomy figures:

There is not much the government can do. The so-called reserve will just be a drop in the ocean. The pork reserve in Hunan translates into only 61,000 pigs, accounting for less than 1 percent of the shortfall. What's worse, there is a ripple effect. Vendors are nudging up the prices of other produce, such as eggs, beef and fish. This is the result of substitute shopping - buying something else when you wanted to buy pork, as advised by media experts.

I am not sure how the other provincial pork reserves compare with Hunan, but China's swine population is about 500 million. Estimates in the news put the disease-caused shortfall at 20 million head of swine. Mainland China has 27 provinces and autonomous regions (not counting independent municipalities). If 61,000 hogs is the average provincial reserve, then the total reserve is 1.65 million, approximately. That's 8 percent of the shortfall and a paltry .33 percent of the national hog stock.

In fact, Zhou is arguing economic common sense: industry consolidation, sound forecasting and a futures market. But all that will take some time.

In the meanwhile, you might want to consider hoarding bacon.

  No thanks. We've got plenty in Zhongnanhai.

Updated: To correct time spans of price rises reported in FT.