Just a few days ago, Muslim militants killed 16 policemen in China’s far west. An Islamic group has made new threats against the Olympic Games.

So this analysis of the real threat to the Games, from a Hong Kong risk analysis group, is particularly timely. Here is what Steve Vickers, a former chief investigator with the Hong Kong police, writes:

There has been much publicity and debate as to the Actual Security Threat at Olympic venues - some of this has been ill informed or sensational in nature.

International Risk's bottom line assessment is that, whilst there is a genuine threat of terrorism in parts of the PRC; particularly those areas in close proximity to Xinjiang  and to the border areas with Pakistan and Afghanistan - that the threat to the actual Olympic venues is assessed as Medium to Low. The separatist groups concerned are not assessed to have the capability to project significant resources to the Olympic venues.

The threat to Hong Kong and the other Olympic venues are similarly assessed to be Medium to Low.

Conversely, escalated levels of "publicity driven stunts" and demonstrations by various NGO's and other peaceful organisations can be anticipated, particularly in Hong Kong and other non-Beijing venues.